Subject: Re: Domain Centric Administration, RE: draft-ietf-v6ops-natpt-to-historic-00.txt

From: [email-masked] (Noel Chiappa)
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2007 12:23:06 -0400 (EDT)

> From: Marshall Eubanks <[email-masked]>

    >> Its not going to work that way. All we will end up with is hyper-NAT.

    > And a Market in IPv4 addresses, which will certainly develop as IPv4
    > exhaustion nears.

This is rather close to a prediction I made some time ago:

  Subject: Re: Reality (was RE: Stupid NAT tricks and how to stop them.)
  Date: Mon, 10 Apr 2006 10:35:58 -0400 (EDT)

  Many years ago now, a funny thing happened on the way to "complete
  exhaustion of the IPv4 address space (Version 1)". Some clever people
  worked out this ugly hack, which the marketplace judged - despite its
  ugliness - to be a superior solution to the forklift upgrade to IPv6. It's
  been selling like hot-cakes ever since, while IPv6 languished.

  I've become rather disenchanted with my crystal ball, which seems quite
  cloudy of late .. so I have no specific prediction to make, but...

  Don't be surprised if the world, facing "complete exhaustion of the IPv4
  address space (Version 2)" decides, yet again, that some sort of Plan B is
  a better choice than a conversion to IPv6.

  I have no idea exactly what it will be (maybe a free market in IPv4
  addresses, plus layered NAT's, to name just one possibility), but there are
  a lot of clever people out there, and *once events force them to turn their
  attention to this particular alligator*, don't be surprised if they don't
  come up with yet another workaround.

I still see no reason to change course on this particular prediction...

	Noel

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